Edo State Governor Monday Okpebholo’s pledge to deliver 2.5 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election has come under scrutiny, with voter statistics suggesting that the target would require an exceptionally high turnout and overwhelming support for the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Okpebholo has repeatedly promised that Edo State would deliver 2.5 million votes for Tinubu, citing the Federal Government’s economic reforms and his administration’s development projects as reasons the APC could secure a decisive victory in the state.
The governor restated the commitment recently in Benin City during a one-million-youth march organised by the City Boy Movement in support of his administration and Tinubu’s re-election bid.
Defending the president’s economic policies, Okpebholo said the removal of the petrol subsidy had increased the resources available for development projects and government expenditure.
“We are paying so much on salaries and at the same time, development is ongoing, projects are ongoing. Look at our flyover, if not for the reforms of the president, where will we get money for all this?” he said.
The governor also highlighted his administration’s investments in healthcare and education, claiming that more than 108 primary healthcare centres had been built, over 87 primary and secondary schools renovated, and subventions to higher institutions increased from N41 million to more than N700 million.
“How could we have gotten this money, if not For the man (President Bola Tinubu) who is courageous enough to have removed the fuel subsidy,” Okpebholo added.
Edo’s Growing Voter Register
Figures from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) show that Edo State had 2,501,081 registered voters in the final register used for the 2023 general elections.
For the 2027 elections, the state’s registered electorate has increased to 2,865,263, representing an addition of 364,182 voters, or approximately 14.6 per cent over four years.
The latest figure places Edo as the 14th-largest electorate among Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
However, the governor’s target of 2.5 million votes would represent approximately 87.3 per cent of the entire registered electorate.
In practical terms, nearly 87 out of every 100 registered voters in the state would have to vote for Tinubu for the president to achieve the target.
That projection also assumes that an exceptionally large proportion of registered voters would participate in the election and that the overwhelming majority of those who vote would support the APC candidate.
What the 2023 Presidential Election Revealed
The results of the 2023 presidential election provide a benchmark for assessing the scale of the governor’s pledge.
In that election, Peter Obi of the Labour Party won Edo State with 331,163 votes, while Tinubu, who contested on the APC platform, received 144,471 votes.
Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party secured 89,585 votes, while Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party polled 2,743 votes.
Tinubu’s 144,471 votes amounted to approximately 5.8 per cent of the 2,501,081 registered voters in Edo at the time.
To reach Okpebholo’s 2027 target, the APC would need to increase Tinubu’s 2023 tally by 2,355,529 votes, taking the total to roughly 17 times his previous performance in the state.
Although the political landscape could change before the next election, the figures illustrate the scale of the mobilisation required to achieve the governor’s projection.
Voter Turnout Presents Another Challenge
Beyond party support, voter turnout remains a critical factor in determining whether the target is achievable.
Nationally, approximately 24.9 million votes were cast from a final register of about 93.47 million voters in the 2023 presidential election, representing turnout of roughly 26.7 per cent.
While Edo’s turnout may differ from the national average in 2027, the figures demonstrate that the number of registered voters does not translate directly into votes cast.
Based on Edo’s current register of 2,865,263 voters, a 50 per cent turnout would produce approximately 1.43 million voters, well below the governor’s 2.5 million target.
Even if turnout reached 70 per cent, the total number of voters would be about 2 million.
Consequently, Tinubu would need not only a very high turnout but also support from an overwhelming majority of participating voters to reach 2.5 million votes in Edo.
Political Scientist Describes Pledge as Rhetoric
Professor Atah Pine, a political scientist in the Department of Political Science at Benue State University, Makurdi, said Okpebholo’s declaration should be understood primarily as political rhetoric rather than a scientific projection of the number of votes the president would receive.
According to Pine, the governor was likely seeking to communicate his determination to deliver Edo State to the APC presidential candidate by a substantial margin.
“I think the idea was to say that he is going to deliver the state with high margins. I want to believe that is the intentionality of that statement, that he is going to deliver Edo with landslides,” Pine said.
He described the promise of more than two million votes as politically exaggerated when measured against the state’s electoral figures.
“Because to sit and say he is going to give the president over 2 million is a little bit politically hyperbolic,” he added.
Pine also identified voter apathy, public distrust in the electoral system and other factors that could discourage participation as potential obstacles to the governor’s ambition.
He explained that voter behaviour could change between now and election day, making it difficult to predict the final outcome with certainty.
“From now to that time for the election, whether the next 60 days or 90 days, you cannot concretely establish the factors,” he said.
The political scientist stressed that the governor could mobilise support for Tinubu but could not determine how individual voters would cast their ballots.
“Now it is wrong to put a percentage on the vote because he is not going to commandeer the voters to vote for the president,” Pine said.
He added that voting behaviour would be influenced by several factors beyond the governor’s control.
2027 Election Could Test APC’s Strength in Edo
Okpebholo’s pledge sets an ambitious benchmark for the APC as political parties prepare for the 2027 general elections.
The governor has linked his confidence in Tinubu’s re-election prospects to the Federal Government’s economic reforms and his administration’s development record. However, the 2023 presidential election results and the state’s current voter register highlight the considerable gap between the APC’s previous performance and the new target.
Whether the party can substantially expand its support will depend on voter turnout, public assessment of government performance, party mobilisation and the wider political environment leading up to the election.
For now, the 2.5 million-vote promise remains a political commitment whose feasibility will ultimately be tested at the ballot box.
