The World Bank has projected that Brent crude oil prices will fall to $79 per barrel in 2027. The forecast follows rising prices caused by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released on October 28, the bank projected an average price of $91 per barrel in 2026. It also expects prices to reach nearly $100 in the fourth quarter of 2026.
However, the bank expects crude prices to decline further in the coming years. Its forecast puts Brent crude at $79 per barrel in 2027 and $70 in 2028.
The World Bank linked the expected decline to recovering global oil production. Improved crude shipments from the Gulf could also increase supply.
Meanwhile, weaker demand could put further pressure on prices. The bank projects global oil consumption to contract by 2.5 per cent in 2026.
This represents approximately 2.6 million barrels per day. It would also mark the third-largest annual contraction on record.
The forecast raises concerns for Nigeria’s economy. Crude oil remains a major source of government revenue and foreign exchange.
Nigeria’s 2026 budget uses an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel. The World Bank’s projected 2026 average of $91 remains above this benchmark.
However, falling prices could reduce government earnings. This risk becomes greater if Nigeria fails to increase crude production and export volumes.
Lower oil revenue could also affect budget implementation. It may put pressure on foreign exchange earnings and infrastructure spending.
Despite the expected decline, the outlook remains uncertain. The World Bank warned that geopolitical developments could push prices higher.
An escalation of tensions in the Middle East could disrupt global oil supplies. Prolonged disruptions to Russian oil exports could also affect the market.
Under these conditions, Brent crude could reach $105 per barrel in 2027.
For Nigeria, the forecast highlights the need to strengthen its oil sector. The country must improve crude production and secure oil infrastructure.
Attracting fresh investment will also be important. In addition, diversifying government revenue could reduce dependence on crude exports.
Although lower oil prices may benefit energy-importing countries, they could create fresh challenges for oil-dependent economies such as Nigeria.
