The report, released on Wednesday, warns that global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, which seeks to keep global warming well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said global emissions remained at record levels in 2025, stressing that current government policies and national climate commitments fall dangerously short of what is required to limit rising temperatures.
The annual Emissions Gap Report also estimates that global warming could reach 2.8°C by the end of the century if countries continue with their existing policies without stronger climate action.
Global Emissions Remain Near Record Levels
According to the report, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 remained broadly comparable to the record levels recorded in 2024, with the difference between the two years too small to establish a significant change.
Emissions from burning coal, oil and gas, the main drivers of human-induced climate change, increased slightly during the year.
The findings highlight the gap between governments’ climate commitments and the measures currently being implemented to reduce pollution and accelerate the transition to cleaner energy sources.
Guterres warned that the consequences of continued inaction include deadly floods, extreme heatwaves, wildfires, economic losses and widening inequalities, with vulnerable communities bearing a disproportionate share of the damage.
Paris Climate Goal Faces Growing Pressure
The UNEP report says the world can no longer avoid temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C warming threshold, with temperatures already approximately 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels.
Scientists warn that every additional fraction of a degree increases the risks of extreme weather, coral reef destruction, melting permafrost and other potentially irreversible environmental changes.
The Group of 20 economies accounts for approximately three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions, placing major economies at the centre of efforts to slow global warming.
The report also identifies differences in emissions trends among major polluters. Preliminary 2025 data showed increases in emissions in the United States, China and Indonesia, while India, Russia and the European Union recorded declines.
The United States recorded an increase of 133 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, attributed partly to higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal-fired power generation.
UN Calls for Urgent Climate Action Ahead of COP31
The report outlines a pathway that could give the world a 50 per cent chance of bringing temperatures back down to 1.5°C by 2100, but it would require immediate and sustained emissions cuts of approximately six per cent annually through 2035.
Achieving that pathway would also require temperatures to peak at around 1.8°C by 2050, followed by the removal of substantial amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Climate experts say the scale of the required reductions is far beyond current projections, underscoring the need for governments to strengthen policies that reduce fossil fuel use and accelerate the adoption of cleaner energy.
The findings are expected to intensify pressure on world leaders ahead of the COP31 climate summit, scheduled to take place in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, 2026.
Guterres has acknowledged a global climate leadership gap but stressed that temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C threshold should not mean abandoning efforts to limit long-term warming.
