Nigeria has, over the past decade, demonstrated a growing commitment to climate action, through its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, the Climate Change Act of 2021, and the Energy Transition Plan.
The Africa’s largest economy has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while pursuing sustainable development, government agencies, private organizations, and civil society groups have also intensified campaigns on climate awareness, renewable energy, afforestation, and cleaner transportation.
Lagos State continues to lead through urban greening initiatives, electric mobility projects, waste-to-energy programmes, and investments in sustainable transport.
In northern Nigeria, Kano State has sustained annual tree-planting campaigns to combat desertification and restore degraded land. These initiatives also improve urban air quality and strengthen climate resilience. Together, they reflect a nation striving to reduce its carbon footprint while preparing for a changing climate.
Yet beneath these commitments lies a difficult question. Is Nigeria’s development path truly aligned with its climate promises? The country’s economy remains heavily dependent on crude oil production. At the same time, gas flaring continues to undermine decades of environmental reforms.
According to the World Bank’s 2025 Global Gas Flaring Tracker, Nigeria flared about 229 billion cubic feet of natural gas in 2024. That represents a 12 percent increase from the previous year. The Federal Ministry of Environment also acknowledges that Nigeria remains among the world’s leading gas-flaring countries. These emissions continue even as Nigeria seeks international climate finance and pursues its net-zero target by 2060.
The arrival of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery marks one of Nigeria’s biggest industrial achievements in decades. The refinery promises energy security, lower dependence on imported fuel, thousands of jobs, and stronger regional influence. It could also improve foreign exchange earnings and strengthen the country’s economy. However, refining crude oil is an energy-intensive process.
As production increases and expansion plans progress, operational emissions are also likely to rise. This can only be minimized through cleaner technologies, carbon capture, methane reduction, and renewable energy integration. The same concerns apply to future large-scale refinery projects and industrial expansion. Without strong emissions controls, Nigeria risks replacing imported emissions with domestically generated ones while increasing its overall carbon footprint.
The real challenge is not whether Nigeria should industrialize. It is how the country chooses to industrialize. Every new refinery, petrochemical plant, fertilizer facility, or oil infrastructure project strengthens economic growth. However, each also has the potential to increase greenhouse gas emissions if environmental safeguards do not keep pace. Current trends already suggest that emissions from the oil and gas sector will remain under pressure as energy demand grows and refining capacity expands. Unless gas flaring is eliminated, methane leaks are controlled, and cleaner production technologies become standard, Nigeria’s emissions could continue to rise despite its climate commitments.
Nigeria now stands at a defining moment. The country can become Africa’s industrial powerhouse without sacrificing its climate ambitions. However, that will only happen if environmental responsibility grows alongside economic expansion. Climate commitments cannot remain policy documents while emissions continue to increase.
The federal government, regulators, oil producers, refinery operators, state governments, and investors must match every new industrial project with measurable climate action. That includes investments in emissions reduction, renewable energy, methane capture, reforestation, carbon monitoring, and transparent environmental reporting. Economic growth and environmental sustainability are not competing goals. Nigeria’s future will depend on its ability to achieve both.
