South Sudan’s fragile peace deal is on the verge of collapse as renewed clashes, political infighting, and worsening humanitarian conditions threaten to push the country back into full-scale war.
Tensions Flare Amid Political Crackdown
The African Union Peace and Security Council (AU-PSC) is raising alarm over a surge in violence and political instability across South Sudan. Its latest briefing signifies intensified clashes between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and rival groups within the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO).
The detention of First Vice-President Riek Machar earlier this year has further destabilized the transitional government, effectively stalling progress under the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). His arrest has deepened divisions, triggering retaliatory attacks in Upper Nile, Jonglei, and parts of Equatoria.
Power Struggles in Juba
President Salva Kiir has faced growing criticism for consolidating power through a sweeping reshuffle of top military, judicial, and administrative positions. Several of the new appointments include close allies and family members, a move that opposition groups and civil society say undermines the inclusive spirit of the peace deal.
Analysts warn that these maneuvers could fracture what remains of the coalition government and erode trust among key political factions, threatening preparations for the long-delayed 2026 elections.
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
The security breakdown has worsened an already dire humanitarian situation. More than 2 million people remain internally displaced, and nearly half a million have fled their homes since the start of 2025. Flooding and food insecurity have compounded the crisis, while aid operations face growing access restrictions and attacks on humanitarian workers.
International agencies warn that the collapse of governance structures in several states risks plunging the country into another catastrophic conflict.
Regional and International Concerns
The African Union, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) have all urged renewed dialogue among the country’s leaders. The AU-PSC, meeting on 28 October 2025, is expected to press for:
- The immediate release of detained political figures, including Riek Machar.
- A recommitment to the 2018 peace deal and ceasefire terms.
- Greater accountability for violations and attacks on civilians.
- Expanded humanitarian access and protection for aid workers.
The AU’s deliberations come amid fears that continued instability could destabilize the wider East African region, already strained by conflicts in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
South Sudan’s current crisis shows the fragile nature of its peace process. Without urgent political compromise and sustained international pressure, the world’s youngest nation risks repeating the devastating cycle of violence that defined its early years of independence.
