The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed a significant drop in food inflation for September 2025, with average food prices declining month-on-month for the first time in several periods. The development offers a rare reprieve for Nigerian consumers grappling with high living costs.
According to the NBS Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2025, food inflation fell by -1.57% month-on-month, marking a sharp turnaround from the +1.65% increase recorded in August.
On a year-on-year basis, food inflation stood at 16.87%, a massive drop from the 37.77% rate recorded in September 2024. The NBS attributes much of this decline to a change in the CPI base year used for its calculations.
The agency further identified that the fall in food prices was largely driven by reductions in the average cost of several staple items, including maize (corn), grains, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, and fresh pepper.
In its report, the NBS also highlighted that core inflation which excludes the more volatile agricultural produce and energy stood at 19.53% year-on-year, while on a month-by-month basis, it recorded 1.42%, a slight dip from August’s 1.43%.
Implications & Analysis
- Consumer Relief: The decline in food inflation could ease pressure on households, particularly in lower-income groups who spend a significant portion of their income on food.
- Monetary Policy Outlook: The drop in food prices may influence the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) future interest rate decisions. With inflation cooling, the CBN might feel more room to consider further monetary easing.
- Structural Change Effects: The sharp year-over-year drop in food inflation is partially linked to the NBS’s rebasing of its CPI index shifting its reference year to better reflect current consumption patterns.
- Food Supply Gains: Lower prices for key staples suggest improvements in supply, possibly due to seasonal harvests, better distribution, or both.
NBS data for September 2025 shows a notable ease in food inflation, offering a glimmer of relief for Nigerian households after months of sky-high food costs. While structural changes in the CPI calculation play a role, the decline also signals positive supply-side trends. Monetary and fiscal policymakers will likely monitor these developments closely as they assess next steps to sustain the disinflation trajectory.
